As regards any calls for an inquiry into excess deaths, we need to insist that it's not put in the hands of the same people responsible for the WHO / Davos banning of safe treatments and pushing the mrna injectables trials.
But maybe the time is right to bring together a citizen-led inquiry, supported by some TDs, and bringing in independent Irish doctors and researchers, plus notable medical experts from abroad.
The Joe Henry chart confirms (or is confirmed by) Ed Dowd's team's work. Not surprising as both use CSO data.
Dowd's site has interactive tools people might like to know about and use?
For example... in the first chart ("Yearly Mortality for age group" ) chart choose Age Group: 15-24 and Method 2C... and voila there's an almost identical graph as Joe Henry's above, albeit starting from 2010, not 2008 - and using 'yearly death rate, %' as distinct from 'number of reported deaths'.
Mention is made of cancer deaths, some perhaps having been caused by delays to treatment, and the latter delays cannot be ignored in looking at what I consider the anti-health response pushed by the so-called WHO and slavishly followed by politicians and incessantly blared out by media.
But it's important to note that many doctors in the US and elsewhere have been reporting serious up-tics in cancer cases since the rollout of the covid injections. These include patients in remission for years having stage four cancers within weeks of "boosters". This must be a focus of any investigations.
Exactly....eminent drs in Canada have been speaking out on this as has eminent dr Cole who admitted he was even getting calls from Irish Drs in relation to the skyrocketing patients getting cancer.
Sad to say Drs are too terrified to speak out for fear of repercussions from the medical boards....
Regards the cancer treatment and diagnosis. A relative of mine continued their treatment during Covid, without hindrance.
Took all the shots, got Covid too and eventually succumbed to the cancer.
I know two ladies, mid-fifties and fit as fiddles. First lady, less than three months from diagnosis to passing. Second lady, seventeen days. Both inoculated.
Maybe I'm missing something but deaths in the 15-24 year age group only seem unusual compared to 2020. As you note above, there were 175 deaths in that group in 2022 compared to 146 in 2021 and 136 in 2020. However, in 2019 there were 153 deaths. In 2018 there were 157 and in 2017 there were 175 - the same number as 2022. However, the population on that age group is higher in 2022 (651,300 in 2022 vs 584,8000 in 2017). Therefore, the 2022 death rate is 0.26869338 while the 2017 death rate was higher at 0.29924761. In other words, the death rate in this category does not seem out of keeping with the pre-Covid period. The intriguing part is why it went down in 2020.
I've looked at 20, 21, 22 because I want to see the difference myself. I actually think this is low given whats happening with inquests. Joe's (red dots) graph tracks demographics and plots against the (5 Yr?) average in that age group. His stats found itcwas definitely out of keeping compared to pre covid. I'm on the road so can't go into more detail but for me the issue is where we will find the causes of death affecting this age group
Interesting observations Damian. Looking at Dowd's quarterly graphs it looks like Q2 & Q3 2020 were well below average. Similarly Q2 of 2021. Then, after Q3 2021 there's a notable upward move and a break away from the previous pattern.
Damian, There's 2 ways to look at data: the physical model and the data model. In the data model approach (typical statistician's approach) the source of the data is not a concern just the structure of the data . The trend in the period 2008-2019 is clear (whatever is causing it - presumably multi-factorial with pop changes being just one factor). The secular trend in the that period is trending down in the full 95%CI (the typical level of scientific evidence). It is also trending down if a shorter period of 2014-2019 is chosen in the full 95%CI. So we can say with 95% certainty that 15-24yr old deaths were trending downwards in the decade up to 2019 (for whatever reasons). Projecting that model to 2020 and the deaths are around expected. To 2021, the deaths are elevated and marginally stat significant. To 2022 there appears to be a change now in the trend and they're stat sig elevated compared to the model. From a pure data model approach there is stat sig evidence of a trend change (for some reason(s)). What is causing that trend to change in the last year+?
It would be perfect knowledge to know for certain what the counterfactual would have been if we didn't have the Covid vax. But we can't know that and never could. Next best thing is a control group and we have 2 of these: the 1-4yr olds and the 5-14yr olds. Vax data on wikipedia indicates that 2/3rds of <18yr olds did not get the vax. It is sig higher than this <15yrs. Therefore, they are 2 groups that are largely unvaxed. How did the same model work for them? Absolutely fine with the model expected and actual in close agreement so no trend change in those 2 groups (presumably also increasing numbers like the 15-24yr group). So why did the next older age group have a sudden trend change coinciding exactly with a novel PH measure?
The statistical evidence of a big problem is by far the strongest in the 75-84 yr age group that are 6.7SDs above the expected value (~1,600 reported excess deaths) with half of all excess deaths in Ireland occurring in that age band. That's a massive alarm signal.
I prefer to use raw death numbers rather than rates as you're looking for a signal in a noisy environment (variance). It's generally a low S/N ratio environment that you're looking for any signal. Anything that increases the noise or reduces the signal isn't a good idea. As the pop also has variance the rates per 100k add in the pop variance to the death notice variance (more noise). As pop dynamics are relatively slowly changing a linear model is reasonably precise and captures the secular trend adequately. Many ppl like to use ASMR but that increases the noise and ALSO can reduce the signal and when applied to Ireland hides the excess deaths if using the ESP2013 model! (Possibly not anymore as the signal is now getting much bigger from '22 onwards). Raw deaths numbers are, in my view, the most sensitive and reliable manner to see an excess deaths signal in ACM national statistics. Hope that helps.
Interesting contribution Joe. Anything that reduces noise and enhances signal is good. Excuse my ignorancr but what do the acronyms ASMR and ACM stand for?
Sorry we live in an abbreviation fill world! ASMR - age standardised mortality rate ( where mortality rates per 100k typically by age band are then weighted in accordance with their size compared to standardised European population in 2013 - bad for Ireland as our pop is younger). ACM - all cause mortality and not looking at mortality for specific reasons.
is it that there had been a downward trend in the death rate for this age group (when normalised for population increases) from 2017-2020, and now a sudden upward trend after 2021.
It's been trending down since 2011 at least, then reverses after 2020. But the 2022 rate is still less than every year prior to 2018 until 2011 and about half the 2011 death rate in that category.
As regards any calls for an inquiry into excess deaths, we need to insist that it's not put in the hands of the same people responsible for the WHO / Davos banning of safe treatments and pushing the mrna injectables trials.
How about the inquiry being run by those who called things accurately from the early days?!
Possibly, I'm not sure.
But maybe the time is right to bring together a citizen-led inquiry, supported by some TDs, and bringing in independent Irish doctors and researchers, plus notable medical experts from abroad.
Sorry Sean, that's probably what you meant anyway.
Or something like: https://nationalcitizensinquiry.ca/
Excellent work Louise.
Thank you Thomas
Brilliant work Louise. Thank you.
The Joe Henry chart confirms (or is confirmed by) Ed Dowd's team's work. Not surprising as both use CSO data.
Dowd's site has interactive tools people might like to know about and use?
For example... in the first chart ("Yearly Mortality for age group" ) chart choose Age Group: 15-24 and Method 2C... and voila there's an almost identical graph as Joe Henry's above, albeit starting from 2010, not 2008 - and using 'yearly death rate, %' as distinct from 'number of reported deaths'.
https://phinancetechnologies.com/HumanityProjects/yearly%20Excess%20Death%20Rate%20Analysis%20-%20IE.htm
Yes I looked at Ed Dowds graphs for this age group but didn't know where those figures were coming from
A well written article.
Mention is made of cancer deaths, some perhaps having been caused by delays to treatment, and the latter delays cannot be ignored in looking at what I consider the anti-health response pushed by the so-called WHO and slavishly followed by politicians and incessantly blared out by media.
But it's important to note that many doctors in the US and elsewhere have been reporting serious up-tics in cancer cases since the rollout of the covid injections. These include patients in remission for years having stage four cancers within weeks of "boosters". This must be a focus of any investigations.
Thanks. Agree
Exactly....eminent drs in Canada have been speaking out on this as has eminent dr Cole who admitted he was even getting calls from Irish Drs in relation to the skyrocketing patients getting cancer.
Sad to say Drs are too terrified to speak out for fear of repercussions from the medical boards....
That last point alone should be cause for concern
Thanks for your excellent hard work
Thanks Suzie
Meticulous work again Louise, fair play.
Regards the cancer treatment and diagnosis. A relative of mine continued their treatment during Covid, without hindrance.
Took all the shots, got Covid too and eventually succumbed to the cancer.
I know two ladies, mid-fifties and fit as fiddles. First lady, less than three months from diagnosis to passing. Second lady, seventeen days. Both inoculated.
How long can this continue before it breaks down.
Honestly don't know.
Over and over, the same stories.
Kind of surreal.
This is horrific.
God help them.
Thanks louise for your great work at highlighting this alarming issuse.
Otherwise people would be unaware of a volumn of issues that you bring attention to.
🙏
They can try hide and deny the deaths of older people but they cant hide the deaths of young healthy young people and children from the data.
Its horrendous and tragic 🙏🙏
Thank you for your work. It is much appreciated.
thank you William
This is important work Louise, thank you. Is there any way I can contact you privately (I am new to substack!). E
Hi E
Louiseroseingrave@gmail.com
Hi Louise,
Maybe I'm missing something but deaths in the 15-24 year age group only seem unusual compared to 2020. As you note above, there were 175 deaths in that group in 2022 compared to 146 in 2021 and 136 in 2020. However, in 2019 there were 153 deaths. In 2018 there were 157 and in 2017 there were 175 - the same number as 2022. However, the population on that age group is higher in 2022 (651,300 in 2022 vs 584,8000 in 2017). Therefore, the 2022 death rate is 0.26869338 while the 2017 death rate was higher at 0.29924761. In other words, the death rate in this category does not seem out of keeping with the pre-Covid period. The intriguing part is why it went down in 2020.
Hi Damian
I've looked at 20, 21, 22 because I want to see the difference myself. I actually think this is low given whats happening with inquests. Joe's (red dots) graph tracks demographics and plots against the (5 Yr?) average in that age group. His stats found itcwas definitely out of keeping compared to pre covid. I'm on the road so can't go into more detail but for me the issue is where we will find the causes of death affecting this age group
Interesting observations Damian. Looking at Dowd's quarterly graphs it looks like Q2 & Q3 2020 were well below average. Similarly Q2 of 2021. Then, after Q3 2021 there's a notable upward move and a break away from the previous pattern.
https://phinancetechnologies.com/HumanityProjects/Quarterly%20Excess%20Death%20Rate%20Analysis%20V2%20-%20IE.htm
(Unfortunately those charts don't include Q4 2022 or Q1 2023 yet)
Damian, There's 2 ways to look at data: the physical model and the data model. In the data model approach (typical statistician's approach) the source of the data is not a concern just the structure of the data . The trend in the period 2008-2019 is clear (whatever is causing it - presumably multi-factorial with pop changes being just one factor). The secular trend in the that period is trending down in the full 95%CI (the typical level of scientific evidence). It is also trending down if a shorter period of 2014-2019 is chosen in the full 95%CI. So we can say with 95% certainty that 15-24yr old deaths were trending downwards in the decade up to 2019 (for whatever reasons). Projecting that model to 2020 and the deaths are around expected. To 2021, the deaths are elevated and marginally stat significant. To 2022 there appears to be a change now in the trend and they're stat sig elevated compared to the model. From a pure data model approach there is stat sig evidence of a trend change (for some reason(s)). What is causing that trend to change in the last year+?
It would be perfect knowledge to know for certain what the counterfactual would have been if we didn't have the Covid vax. But we can't know that and never could. Next best thing is a control group and we have 2 of these: the 1-4yr olds and the 5-14yr olds. Vax data on wikipedia indicates that 2/3rds of <18yr olds did not get the vax. It is sig higher than this <15yrs. Therefore, they are 2 groups that are largely unvaxed. How did the same model work for them? Absolutely fine with the model expected and actual in close agreement so no trend change in those 2 groups (presumably also increasing numbers like the 15-24yr group). So why did the next older age group have a sudden trend change coinciding exactly with a novel PH measure?
The statistical evidence of a big problem is by far the strongest in the 75-84 yr age group that are 6.7SDs above the expected value (~1,600 reported excess deaths) with half of all excess deaths in Ireland occurring in that age band. That's a massive alarm signal.
I prefer to use raw death numbers rather than rates as you're looking for a signal in a noisy environment (variance). It's generally a low S/N ratio environment that you're looking for any signal. Anything that increases the noise or reduces the signal isn't a good idea. As the pop also has variance the rates per 100k add in the pop variance to the death notice variance (more noise). As pop dynamics are relatively slowly changing a linear model is reasonably precise and captures the secular trend adequately. Many ppl like to use ASMR but that increases the noise and ALSO can reduce the signal and when applied to Ireland hides the excess deaths if using the ESP2013 model! (Possibly not anymore as the signal is now getting much bigger from '22 onwards). Raw deaths numbers are, in my view, the most sensitive and reliable manner to see an excess deaths signal in ACM national statistics. Hope that helps.
Interesting contribution Joe. Anything that reduces noise and enhances signal is good. Excuse my ignorancr but what do the acronyms ASMR and ACM stand for?
Sorry we live in an abbreviation fill world! ASMR - age standardised mortality rate ( where mortality rates per 100k typically by age band are then weighted in accordance with their size compared to standardised European population in 2013 - bad for Ireland as our pop is younger). ACM - all cause mortality and not looking at mortality for specific reasons.
Thanks Joe, very helpful.
is it that there had been a downward trend in the death rate for this age group (when normalised for population increases) from 2017-2020, and now a sudden upward trend after 2021.
Upward trend after the rollout of the experimental in 2021.
It's been trending down since 2011 at least, then reverses after 2020. But the 2022 rate is still less than every year prior to 2018 until 2011 and about half the 2011 death rate in that category.
Hmm! Worth another look then. More stats out end Oct so things might become clearer
Lol
Disinformation alert!